Holy Grail vs. Ugly Duckling
Many people are still puzzled by the story of Theranos. A young female student, Elizabeth Holmes, from Stanford claimed to have developed a blood-testing device using only a few drops of blood to test more than 200 items at 1/10 of traditional costs. The company raised more than $400 million dollars from investors with the valuation of almost $10 billion dollars. Ms. Holems and her company won numerous awards and praises from all sorts of organizations and media. Suddenly, in October 2015, the company started to collapse after an article in the Wall Street Journal raised concerns on its claims, opened the lid of doubts, and finally led to various investigations conducted on Theranos. The fancy story hit the ground very badly.
But, here comes the big puzzle. Theranos’ claims were not peer-reviewed before. They were never tested for accuracy nor approved by FDA either. Why didn’t any of the investors study the company’s technology before putting money into it? Why did many presses and organizations honor Ms. Holems and the company without even digging into the details? Why didn’t any member of the company’s “all-star” board wonder what they were really doing? It is unbelievable that a mirage was so big and obvious but nobody ever questioned it.
Why? Besides Ms. Holems’ personal charm and the political power behind the company, a key factor is our desire on the Holy Grail. We always want a simple elegant solution to solve the biggest problem of the universe. Let it be “DNA modifications”, “micro robot inside blood vessels”, or Theranos’ blood test at super low costs. As long as you promise to deliver the Holy Grail, investors rush to shovel money to your front door, and the media go crazy about you. After all, you are the next savior of the world, aren’t you? Unfortunately, all the promises on the Holy Grail in the past didn’t work out. They were like shooting stars. They went up unrealistically before any result was shown in clinical treatments. Then they went down even quicker when people realized it’s another false promise. But, this motion of finding the Holy Grail never ends. It just gets replaced by another buzzword every several years.
On the other hand, there is another reality totally opposite to the Holy Grail. In this reality, there is no fancy buzzword nor any likelihood of the Nobel Prize. But many successful clinical results are shown every day. Some of the diseases are believed cureless in modern medicine, but the recoveries of patient conditions are too clear to be denied. However, the mainstream people say that it’s not scientific, and they turn their backs to it. Even when they are forced to face this reality, they say that it’s one out of million chances of “human body self healing”. It is the Ugly Duckling. Even though the Ugly Duckling can swim and fly, nobody wants to look at it.
The Ugly Duckling is the ancient wisdom of Chinese Medicine: macroscopic diagnosis, herbal remedy, acupuncture, and other treatment methods. Well, did you just say “crap” and want to stop reading this article? You see. That’s exactly why I called it Ugly Duckling. No matter how many successful cases Chinese Medicine experts present, many people immediately discount Chinese Medicine to the ground or even negative when they hear the name “Chinese Medicine”. I don’t want to argue in this article if Chinese Medicine is scientific. (It is, by the way.) The mere fact is that, scientific or not, there are many successful treatments in Chinese Medicine beyond what modern medicine can explain. And, the statistics is far better than “one out of million chances” of human body self healing. Why can’t we face this fact seriously? Isn’t it much easier to start from something working in the clinical treatments than a fancy buzzword that won’t even be ready for human trials in many years?
People like the Holy Grail much more than the Ugly Duckling. So much more that they are willing to invest in far-reaching promises but not something working in the clinical treatments. Perhaps, it’s time for us to wake up from the dream of Holy Grail and pay more attention to Ugly Duckling. The Ugly Duckling will become a Swan. After all, this Ugly Duckling might well be the Holy Grail that is right in front of us but we chose to ignore.
我看到一半時,就覺得中醫可能才是大家要找的 Holy Grail,沒想到李醫師已經把相同的想法放在結尾。我很贊同李醫師在工研院的演講,中醫要與現代化接軌,一是在基礎理論上有所突破與西方生物生理學結合,二是大數據分析。第一點有些曙光,但還需要很長時間的研究,為時尚早。第二點才是最快的方法。將中醫典籍中的病理機制轉化成統計模型,再用大量的臨床數據去分析此模型的正確性。但資料分析最怕雜訊或潛在影響因子,中醫派別很多,如何收集乾淨、標準化的大量臨床數據可能也是個必須克服的困難。
我和很多人討論過這個方向,最大的問題是經費來源。一般的公司、投資機構、投資人重視的是投資報酬率,雖然這樣的「研究計畫」長期看來很有意義,也很有商業價值,但是5~7年內很難有什麼回報,所以,並不是一般公司、投資機構、投資人會參與的項目。美國政府有很多醫療研究計畫的經費,但是,真的大項目是被大藥廠給掌控的,這並不是我們自己隨便猜測,而是很多知道內幕的主流高階人士不斷地告訴我的,所以,除非大藥廠願意支持,美國政府經費是拿不到的。台灣政府,無論是那個黨派,都不重視中醫,健保給付給中醫的部分不到5%,對中醫的研究也多半在藥物開發部分,曾經有位台灣的政務官和我長談,他寫了一整份厚厚的中醫研究推展計畫,不要說到立法院審核,連高層政府官員的支持都得不到,所以,台灣政府支持的可能性也不大。
目前看來只有兩個可能:一是中國政府的支持,二是美國高端私人非營利機構的支持。中國政府大力推展中醫藥,今年初國務院正式公告中醫為未來十五年的國家重點項目,經費十足,但是,我對中國的系統不熟,雖然目前有不少的接觸,什麼時候能有實質的計畫進行,還是一個很大的未知數。美國高端私人非營利機構,譬如臉書創辦人Mark Zuckerberg剛成立的Chan Zuckerberg Initiative、Gates Foundation、Google X等等,這些人都非常聰明,也非常「open minded」,是有可能說服他們來支持中醫研究,然而,我目前還沒有很好的管道直接和他們討論…(雖然Mark Zuckerberg是我鄰居,我們還雇用同一個園丁,我也只能在非常難得遇到Mark時打聲招呼而已)…我還在想辦法經由各種管道接觸他們,重點是中醫被誤解很久,我們得讓他們自己先相信中醫的價值,並不能靠一個小時的簡報(presentation)就能引起這些私人非營利機構的興趣。
機緣,就是這樣,無論多近,沒有機緣談不上。機緣到了,橋搭路暢